Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.014961 0.016921 0.019044 0.021512 0.024304 0.027366 0.030980
2025-10-05 0.012212 0.014996 0.018265 0.022389 0.027457 0.033489 0.041222
2025-10-12 0.010585 0.013749 0.017676 0.022915 0.029730 0.038309 0.049954
2025-10-19 0.009469 0.012878 0.017308 0.023493 0.031924 0.043038 0.058850
2025-10-26 0.008368 0.011842 0.016537 0.023358 0.033038 0.046322 0.066008
2025-11-02 0.007531 0.011043 0.015960 0.023361 0.034252 0.049744 0.073560
2025-11-09 0.006718 0.010174 0.015172 0.022941 0.034757 0.052125 0.079733
2025-11-16 0.006218 0.009704 0.014898 0.023218 0.036267 0.056042 0.088473
2025-11-23 0.005674 0.009106 0.014364 0.023025 0.037006 0.058805 0.095612
2025-11-30 0.005368 0.008847 0.014318 0.023574 0.038927 0.063523 0.106220
2025-12-07 0.004833 0.008166 0.013538 0.022856 0.038711 0.064765 0.111187
2025-12-14 0.004436 0.007675 0.013019 0.022514 0.039068 0.066940 0.117854
2025-12-21 0.004004 0.007094 0.012313 0.021807 0.038770 0.068030 0.122828
2025-12-28 0.003881 0.007039 0.012498 0.022668 0.041281 0.074173 0.137317
2026-01-04 0.003715 0.006891 0.012505 0.023202 0.043240 0.079477 0.150716
2026-01-11 0.003571 0.006767 0.012542 0.023787 0.045330 0.085168 0.165305
2026-01-18 0.003337 0.006457 0.012210 0.023650 0.046041 0.088341 0.175327
2026-01-25 0.003144 0.006205 0.011965 0.023653 0.047011 0.092064 0.186716
2026-02-01 0.002914 0.005864 0.011521 0.023228 0.047096 0.094066 0.194804
2026-02-08 0.002786 0.005714 0.011437 0.023508 0.048611 0.098994 0.209277
2026-02-15 0.002616 0.005464 0.011132 0.023313 0.049133 0.101950 0.219858
2026-02-22 0.002537 0.005396 0.011189 0.023869 0.051259 0.108355 0.238324
2026-03-01 0.002336 0.005055 0.010659 0.023142 0.050593 0.108853 0.243955